2024 Author: Adelina Croftoon | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 02:07
The sea is responding to climate change faster than previously thought, and may rise by the end of the century more than a meter.
Water level Oceans proved to be very sensitive to changes in the average temperature of the Earth's climatic system. During the 20th century, it increased at an alarming rate, and the dynamics of this process will not change in the near future.
The Netherlands is on the verge of catastrophic flooding even without a rise in ocean level, and with an increase in housing, millions of people will lose here.
Two works at once, published in the latest issue of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, are devoted to the study of the response of the World Ocean to climate change over the past millennia.
The first work was authored by scientists from Singapore, Europe and the United States, led by Professor Stefan Rahmstorfe of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research. They restored the dynamics of sea level change over the past 3000 years.
To do this, scientists used geological data and deposits of shells of tiny marine protists - foraminifera, which were carried by the surf to the low-lying coast and turned out to be buried under a layer of sedimentary rocks.
Carrying out such studies in 24 coastal areas around the world, from New Zealand to Iceland, the authors showed that, for example, a period of a slight decrease in temperature between 1000 and 1400 years (only 0.2 degrees Celsius) led to a drop in sea level by quite noticeable eight centimeters.
For comparison, in the 20th century alone, the sea rose by an impressive 14 centimeters, and by the end of the 21st it will rise another 24 to 130 centimeters, depending on the rate of accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
The same conclusions were reached by the authors of a similar study conducted by a group of Ramstorffy's colleagues at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research, led by Ricarda Winkelmann.
Scientists have modeled the effect of climate on sea level using a computer and proposed three scenarios for the development of events for the 21st century - with an increase in ocean level by 28–56, 37–77 or 57–131 centimeters by 2100. These estimates coincide with the official forecast of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the UN.
Rising sea levels are considered a serious threat to cities, island states and relatively low-lying countries such as the Netherlands or Bangladesh. Growth of two meters can be considered truly catastrophic: it will deprive millions of people of their homes.
However, wealthy countries can afford the costly construction of canals, bridges and dams that strengthen the coast and its infrastructure.
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